Prominent Apple and Mobile industry analyst Ming-Chi Kuo issued a report saying that the fastest-growing period of MediaTek and Qualcomm’s 5G SoC business has passed, and structural risks have risen due to lower-than-expected demand and a significant improvement in the gap between supply and demand in the future.
The report pointed out that the latest survey shows that although the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones in the Chinese market in April has reached more than 80%, the channel inventory has also reached a historical high of about 9.5 weeks, which is significantly higher than the normal inventory level of 4 In 6 weeks, this reflects the lack of demand for 5G due to the lack of high-end applications.
The report said that the stock prices of MediaTek and Qualcomm have reflected that the 5G SoC ASP (Average Selling Price) has increased significantly due to more complex designs and supply shortages, but they are facing structural risks such as long-term sluggish demand, competition, and improvement in the gap between supply and demand. The fastest period has passed.
Kuo Mingchi said that if 5G mobile phones have no killer applications, then MediaTek and Qualcomm will eventually compete in the low-end market with poor profits, and the competitive pressure will be due to the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first in 2022. The quarterly supply chain shortages have been significantly improved and worsened.
The report pointed out that the key to MediaTek’s 5G SoC advantage lies in its close cooperation with TSMC, but Qualcomm will transfer low-end (6nm) and high-end (4nm) 5G SoCs to TSMC in 2021 and 2022, respectively, which is detrimental to MediaTek’s production advantages. The report predicts that TSMC (TSMC) will ship Qualcomm’s 7325 and 6375 in the second and third quarters of 2021, respectively, which will help Qualcomm to regain its market share from MediaTek.
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