According to an analysis of global ecological threats, over 1 billion people might get displaced by 2050. This is because of fast population growth, limited access to food and water, and an increase in exposure to natural disasters.
A think-tank called Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) compiled this. It produces yearly terrorism and peace indexes. The data is used from UN and other sources to evaluate 8 ecological threats and forecast the regions and nations most vulnerable.
It is expected that the world population will increase to almost 10 billion by 2050. This would in turn increase the fight for resources and fuel conflict. The research revealed that almost 1.2 billion people are living in areas vulnerable like sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East. These people might be compelled to migrate by 2050.
In 2019, ecological factors and conflict led to movement of almost 30m people.
Steve Killelea, IEP’s founder said, “This will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries.”
There are two main threats of food insecurity, water scarcity & population growth being the first and natural disasters being the second.
Some countries like India and China are most endangered by water scarcity. Then countries like Pakistan, Iran, Mozambique, Kenya, and Madagascar face not just threats but also the lack of ability to deal with those threats.
The analysis revealed, “These countries are broadly stable now but have high exposure to ecological threats and low and deteriorating ‘positive peace’, which means they are at higher risk of future collapse.”