The researchers at the Centre for International Development (CID) at the Harvard University have predicted that the yearly growth rate in Pakistan in next ten years would be around 6%. In CID earlier research Pakistan’s GDP was to be 5% by 2025, now the prediction is one point more.
We cannot compare China’s massive economy with Pakistan’s developing one, but can’t we? Well, well the research is that Pakistan’s economy would grow by 5.97% while China’s would grow by 4.41%. This makes Pakistan’s growth rate higher in upcoming years in comparison to its neighbor friend’s.
Talking more about what this research really is, it is called `The Atlas of Economic Complexity’. It is based upon the economic complexity of a country, the variety and diversity of useful capabilities of the nation entrenched in the export and how much it could make use of the capabilities by expanding them in future.
Economic complexity does not only highlight the reasons certain country is rich or poor but it can also forecast future more accurately than World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index as per the study undertaken by Harvard.
It is also predicted that growth in India would be by 7.72%, which is the highest globally. It also indicates that for a decade at least, the center of economic growth would be India. After India, Pakistan stands second in Asia in future GDP growth prediction.
In other Asian countries GDP growth rate predicted is as follows:
|Indonesia 5.82%||Tajikistan: 3.61%|
|Turkey: 5.64%||UAE: 2.41%|
|Malaysia: 4.82%||Bangladesh: 2.82%|
|Sri Lanka: 3.77%||Saudi Arabia: 3.17%|
|Uzbekistan: 3.32%||Kazakhstan: 2.65%|
|Kyrgyzstan: 5.77%||Russia: 2.60%|
The reason for difference in economies as per Harvard Study is know-how of things. What poor countries make, are products that are made almost in all countries because they lack know-how, while what rich countries produces are products that are different and those that not all countries can make.
Also read: Will CPEC create jobs in Pakistan?
Now the research by Harvard suggests that development in emerging market would outperform that of already developed economies, though not homogenously.
Apart from India and Pakistan, CID forecasts growth in Indonesia and East Africa. In Pakistan CPEC projects provide Pakistan with an opportunity to produced goods that are value-added in collaboration with Chinese companies.
It’s not just Harvard’s projection about Pakistan, other GDP forecasts are also similar with HSBC predicting 5% growth till 2050, World Bank, 5.8% growth till 2019, Economist prediction about Pakistan is 5.7% growth till 2017 and IMF predicts 5.5% growth till 2020.
What Pakistan needs to do is to expand its product capabilities both for domestic market as well as foreign market. Pakistan agriculture sector needs to grow and capitalize on the natural benefits available for growth of crops in the country.