The Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan is going to contract by 1.6% in the ongoing fiscal 2019-20, amid the coronavirus crisis. It is expected to surge by 2.9% in the next financial year 2020-21.
Over the next few years, the loans from the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral and bilateral donors will help in controlling the balance-of-payments pressures over the next few years. The report citing Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said that the present account will remain in deficit in 2020-24.
From an annual average of Rs160.8 US$1 in 2020, the Pak rupee will depreciate against the U.S dollar by Rs17.7 to reach US$1 in 2024. The remittances of overseas workers will fall in 2020.
It is expected that the unemployment rate will increase by 3.9% to 14.7% in the current fiscal 2019-2020 from 10.8% in 2018-19. It is forecasted to further go down by 11.8% in 2020-21 to further down to 9.4% in 2021-22 and to 8.4% in 2023-24 respectively.
It is expected that the inflation rate will go down to average 7.4% in 2020, from 9.4% in 2019. Even though the overall consumer price inflation is expected to be at average 6.2% a year in 2021-24.
All this forecast is done in country report on Pakistan released from London on Thursday by the UK-based Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Furthermore, the report stated, “And more importantly, the armed forces will not only continue to shape Pakistan’s foreign and security policy, but it is likely to expand their formal influence over economic policy-making during the forecast period.”