The hydel capacity generation is below the average at the moment, due to which power consumers are likely to face more load shedding during the summer, however, government allowed the import of furnace oil recently, it is still not meeting the supply of the furnace oil which delayed Commercial Operations Date (CoC) of three major RLND-fired power plants in Punjab.
According to the sources, 3 RNNG-fired power plants cumulative of 3600 MW (1200 MW each) these plants are still not functional. Recently, at Haveli Bahadur Shah has completed Reliability Test Run (RTR) however, the other two of the plants are still to complete.
Currently, many areas in the country are facing unscheduled load shedding for hours due to a shortfall of 3000MW. A spokesperson of Power division said only those areas where losses are 10 percent or more being affected by the load shedding whereas the areas with line lose less than 10 percent has zero load shedding.
On the other hand, government-owned advertisements on media and the statements of some MNSs claim that Pakistan’s current electricity demand is around 17,300 Megawatts and the country is generating electricity that is surplus.
The ground reality is quite different, areas that were load shedding free 15 days ago due to recovery above 90 percent are also facing unscheduled load shedding.
According to demand versus supply analysis with 7 percent growth in demand peak demand in 2018 would be 25227 MW against installed capacity 31480 MW whereas the capability would be 26135 MW, showing a surplus of 908 MW—Tribune reported
According to the report, “The Power Division showed a detailed power flow analysis on Matiari- Lahore HVDC line based on the following assumptions: (1) all new plants, being coal based, are considered to be run and operational throughout the day; (2) schedule/maintenance and unforeseen/ forced outages of the plants are not considered; (3) load variation in Hesco and KE will affect the flow on transmission lines, but for analysis purposes, those variations are not considered; and (4) generation from wind plants based on historic data reveals that actual generation varies according to wind availability.”