Earlier Reuters reported that Apple has set its long-rumored production target for electric vehicles using “next generation” battery technology to 2024, but Apple analysts Kuo Mingchi believes that Apple Car will not be launched until 2025-2027 at the earliest.
In a research report obtained on December 28, Kuo Mingchi stated that the Apple Car specifications have not yet been finalized, and added that if the car’s launch time period is further postponed to 2028 or later, he will not Will be surprised.
“In our previous report, we predicted that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2021 based on the other reports and testing of the car, However, our latest research shows that the current Apple Car development timeline is not clear. If development starts this year If everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025-2027 at the earliest. Due to the changes in the electric car/autonomous driving market and Apple’s high-quality standards, if Apple Car’s time to market is delayed to 2028 or later, we will not feel the accident.”
Kuo Mingchi said that the market is “overly optimistic” about the timetable for Apple Car’s listing, and he recommends that investors avoid buying Apple Car-related stocks at this time.
Although he doesn’t think that Apple Car has no chance of success, Kuo Mingchi said that due to Apple’s lagging behind in deep learning/artificial intelligence, there is uncertainty about Apple’s competitiveness in the electric vehicle/autonomous car market.
“The market has high hopes for Apple cars. However, we still want to remind investors that although Apple has various competitive advantages, it does not always stand out in new businesses. For example, Apple failed to occupy the smart speaker market. HomePod and The demand for HomePod mini are lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models has been temporarily stopped. Competition in the electric car/autonomous car market is more intense than that in the smart speaker market, so we think it is very good to conclude that Apple Car is not likely to be successful easily.
If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the key success factor is big data/AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about Apple Car is that when Apple Car is launched, the current self-driving car brands have at least five years of accumulation of big data, which is conducive to the development of deep learning/AI. As a rising star, how can Apple overcome this lagging gap? “
Reuters announced that Apple’s self-driving cars will use a unique “single-cell battery” design, which “frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating pouches and modules that contain battery materials”, which may increase the mileage per charge even longer.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently responded to the rumors of Apple cars on Twitter, saying that “monocell batteries” are electrochemically “impossible.” Musk also claimed that in the “darkest days” of Model 3 production, he proactively contacted Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla at a fraction of the current value, but Cook clearly Refused this meeting. All in all, it sounds like Apple cars are still a distant reality.
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